Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected

[AD]

Just got this in

Space Weather Message Code: WARPC0
Serial Number: 73
Issue Time: 2014 Feb 25 1257 UTC

WARNING: Proton 100MeV Integral Flux above 1pfu expected
Valid From: 2014 Feb 25 1315 UTC
Valid To: 2014 Feb 26 0115 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset

NOAA Space Weather Scale descriptions can be found at

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Potential Impacts: An enhancement in the energetic portion of the solar radiation spectrum may indicate increased biological risk to astronauts or passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights. Additionally, energetic particles may represent an increased risk to all satellite systems susceptible to single event effects. This information should be used in conjunction with the current Solar Radiation Storm conditions when assessing overall impact.

[unseenone]

I've always kind of overlooked the obvious in the books. That is the solar panels, nobody knows for sure what the outcome might be.

How does that message relate to the referenced charts on that page?

Here's another chart

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/alerts_timeline.html

[AD]

UN

If you look at these charts http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/ at the second one NOAA Space Weather Scale for Solar Radiation Storms
You will see this is the second lowest on that chart.

We dont know if any damage to panels in earth would happen at higher levels, but the main point is as the sun gets funky, these levels could climb and damage satellites.

Now if this is coupled with Geomagnetic effects we could see effects on the grid, which would have dirrect effects on everyone. See the first chart on this page NOAA Space Weather Scale for Geomagnetic Storms http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales

Thats why i sign up for these alerts, because I can get a few hours/days warning if the SHTF from a solar event.

[AD]

If you look at the time of onset
Valid From: 2014 Feb 25 1315 UTC (1:13 PM GMT)
Valid To: 2014 Feb 26 0115 UTC

I am -7 ZULU so thats 6:13 AM for me in AZ so sometime between 6 AM and 6PM this will hit.

[Tex]

Could you guys dumb this way down so that I can understand what you are talking about and how it could potentially affect the rest of us?


Tex

[unseenone]

run forest run!! oh, well.. prolly not.

He's saying that for certain sun events like CME, we have around 20 hours or so warning. Certain other types of emissions from the sun, we only have 8 minutes warning.

Mainly the things that could effect us on earth, astronauts, commutations satellites and power grid are "monitored" regardless of the risk level. Of interest to a HAM operator for example might be how communications might be effected. Of interest to a power company, well, their not interested, their system for preventing a major output is crossing their fingers. Of interest to astronauts might be when it is not safe for a space walk. What might be of interest for the NSA might be how their spy sat might be effected, maybe they would have time to move them to the dark side of the earth to shield them.

Being the 2nd lowest, it seems more routine to me, if it was the 2nd highest, I'd be more worried, but that's why I was asking for a more detailed explanation.

?? dunno, that's not what either of us were looking for, but it's simplified.

[dangerdan]

I'm going to buy a diesel generator set ,because the Power companys plan is not "crossed fingers"
Their plan is to keep their heads up their ass and hope for fiber . 8(

Hardy diesel .
DD

[W.Lynn]

Sadly, unseenone describes it VERY well.

If you're interested in knowing what a major event could do, you can always read up on a big one called The Carrington Event. It was a big deal at the time, but it was long enough ago that there wasn't the current widespread reliance on electricity. So it was mostly scientists, telegraph operators, and the men who had to replace miles of wires, that noticed it. Today it would be a whole different ballgame, but you've been reading AA's books, if that gives you any ideas.

[unseenone]

Continuing with AD's report, there was an event, one could call it quite a close call.

Sun Erupts with Huge X-Class Flare, Biggest of 2014

Solar maximum may be starting to wane, but the sun has no intention on slipping into the stellar doldrums quietly. At 7:50 p.m. EST on Monday (00:50 UTC, Feb. 25), a sunspot emerging from the southeastern limb of our nearest star unleashed its magnetic fury, exploding with an X5-class flare.
X-class solar flares are the most powerful classification of flare and, if pointing toward Earth, can cause radiation storms and impact our planet’s upper atmosphere, interfering with satellites and global communications. In this case, however, the flare erupted perpendicular to the direction of Earth, so its impact will be minimal. But it did give space observatories quite a fireworks display.the fairly quiescent sun suddenly erupts with a flash, leaving a magnetic tangle in its wake. The loops of magnetism and superheated plasma extend from the solar surface reaching high into the multimillion degree solar atmosphere (known as the corona). It is this region where space weather is spawned, generating rapid flows of charged particles (known as the solar wind), crackling with solar flares and sometimes blasting coronal mass ejections (CMEs) into interplanetary space.
Monday’s flare is the most powerful flare of 2014 and was generated by active region (AR) 1990. Interestingly, the same active region has been responsible for considerable activity during previous rotations across the surface of the sun and this third time, as noted by Tony Phillips at Spaceweather.com, is showing promise for an uptick in flaring activity.
Although this latest X-class flare is impressive, it still occurred during a solar cycle that has been very lackluster. Solar cycles occur approximately every 11 years and reach a peak in magnetic activity during solar maximum. The amount of activity is measured by the number of sunspots that can be observed on the solar disk. Sun spots are caused by magnetic field lines erupting through the solar photosphere (the solar ‘surface’) — therefore, the greater the magnetic activity, the higher the number of sunspots.
Recent activity on the sun has prompted space weather forecasters to predict that the sun may see an increase in activity through 2014, creating a “double peak” solar maximum. But even if this does happen, the current cycle (Solar Cycle 24) is the weakest humanity has observed since Solar Cycle 14, which had a maximum sunspot count of 64.2 in February 1906. The sunspot maximum (so far) occurred last summer, hitting a peak of 67.
The underlying reasons behind the variability in activity of our sun are still not fully understood, proving that even our nearest star can be a mystery.

[AD]

This should blow you mind. When we talk about CME, its hard for people to visualize it. This will help you understand these events.

Here are some images of the ejection modeling

http://www.solarham.net/cmewatch2.htm

You can see the earth to the right and how we just got a glancing blow. If hit head on.....Lights Out

The top row plots show predictions of the solar wind density. The bottom row plots show solar wind velocity.

The circular plots on the left are a view from above the North Pole of the Sun and Earth, as if looking down from above. The Sun is the yellow dot in the center and the Earth is the green dot on the right. Also shown are the locations of the two STEREO satellites. These plots often depict spiral structures, due to solar rotation, as described above.

The wedge-shaped plots in the center provide a side view, with north at the top and south at the bottom.

The graphs on the right show the model predictions for the time evolution of density and velocity at the locations of Earth and of the two STEREO spacecraft. The yellow vertical line is in sync with the movies on the left, so it is possible to see how values of density and velocity correspond to particular solar wind structures.

A “model run mode” for WSA-Enlil is indicated at the bottom: “Ambient” means that the model has been run in the quiet, “fair-weather”, mode while “CME” indicates a dynamic model run containing a prediction of one or multiple CMEs which may be directed towards Earth, or “Geo-effective”.

[Red Sonja]

Could you guys dumb this way down so that I can understand what you are talking about and how it could potentially affect the rest of us?


Tex

Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha lol! It does remind me of stuff we studied in earth science.

[dangerdan]

I'm going to buy a diesel generator set ,because the Power companys plan is not "crossed fingers"
Their plan is to keep their heads up their ass and hope for fiber . 8(

Hardy diesel .
DD

I ordered a 10kw generator with a perkins diesel engine .

I hope that I don't need it ,and that my fears are ungrounded .........
DD

[Tex]

I ordered a 10kw generator with a perkins diesel engine .

I hope that I don't need it ,and that my fears are ungrounded .........
DD

Please start a thread on that. You brought up a very important topic that needs its own thread so that people can discuss it and learn. I am now appointing you the, "AA.net Generator Czar". Seriously though, kick it off. I'm sure a few more on here will jump in with some tips and tricks.


Tex

[dangerdan]

Ok Tex ,tomorrow at work.
DD

[unseenone]

This is unrelated, but it is a very cool interactive map of earth wind/weather.

http://earth.nullschool.net/