Still, why should we care?

Israel National News gives us a clue:

“In 2006, it was estimated that 3.3 million tanker barrels of oil pass through the Mandab Strait each day, out of a total world oil tanker trade of about 43 million barrels. The Iranian-backed Houthi control of the Mandab Strait would mean that Iran effectively controls yet another naval chokepoint in addition to the Strait of Hormuz which exits the Persian Gulf.
About 17 million barrels of oil, or close to 35% of the world’s tankered oil supply, pass through the Strait of Hormuz daily.

Bab el-Mandeb, or literally the “Gateway of Tears,” is the critical naval connector of the Mediterranean Sea with and the Indian Ocean. The Mandab Strait more immediately directly connects the southern outlet of the Red Sea with Gulf of Aden to the north-western aspect of the Arabian Sea. While Yemen controls the Arabian Peninsula’s eastern side of the Mandab Strait, Djibouti and Eritrea control the African western side of the critical strait.”


And the United Arab Emirate's "The National" adds:

“The strait is one of the principal maritime transit points for north-south trade. It is also a vital international oil transit chokepoint for ships plying between the Mediterranean Sea and the Pacific Ocean. In 2013, about 3.8 million barrels of oil passed through the strait every day, which is almost 7 per cent of international maritime oil trade.

“The strait’s importance is inextricably linked to the Suez Canal, on which roughly one-tenth of world maritime trade and one-fifth of global container traffic depend. More than half of the oil shipments that cross the strait are moved through the canal to Europe, North America and Asia.

“Although the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline allows significant northbound GCC crude exports to bypass the strait, southbound oil shipments from North Africa rely on this gateway. There is also no alternative to the strait for non-oil maritime trade traversing the canal. This includes grain shipments to Asia from Europe and North America.

“According to the World Shipping Council, the travel time and distance between the GCC region and the Strait of Gibraltar is about 40 per cent shorter if it goes through the Strait of Bab el Mandeb instead of rounding Africa. Any disruptions to shipping through the strait would significantly increase energy costs and non-oil commodity prices worldwide.”


The International Business Times adds:

“A Houthi takeover would threaten the ability of the central government to control the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which separates the Arabian Peninsula from East Africa and links the Red Sea with the Indian Ocean. About 8 percent of world trade travels through the strait, including about 4 percent of the world’s oil and petroleum products, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. And that percentage is increasing every year. If the Houthi rebels and the central government do not come to an agreement, or if violence in the capital escalates, one of the main oil transit routes could close.

“Closure of the Bab el-Mandeb could keep tankers from the Persian Gulf from reaching the Suez Canal or SUMED Pipeline, diverting them around the southern tip of Africa, adding to transit time and cost,” a report published by the EIA in November said. “In addition, European and North African southbound oil flows could no longer take the most direct route to Asian markets via the Suez Canal and Bab el-Mandeb.” The SUMED pipeline, also known as the Suez-Mediterranean, is a pipeline in Egypt that runs from Ain Sukhna to a port offshore from Alexandria. It is the main alternative to the Suez Canal for transporting oil from the Persion Gulf region to the Mediterranean.

“The closure of Bab el-Mandeb would force oil companies to make longer journeys to deliver Middle Eastern oil via tanker.”

The website Al Monitor reports:

“[An Egyptian security and security expert] said:“Egypt must anticipate and prepare to intervene militarily to prevent the Houthis closing the Bab al-Mandeb strait because it would put it under the control of Iran — like the Strait of Hormuz [in the Persian Gulf]. This would have negative effects on the Suez Canal and would make it a battle of life or death for Egypt. I do not think that the international community would allow this to happen."

“Regarding the possibility of deploying international forces to maintain security in the Red Sea area, Sweilem said, “It is difficult and will not be allowed by either the Yemenis who dominate the eastern side of the Bab al-Mandeb strait, nor the Eritreans who control the western side.”

“He added, “There is a military base and coastal Iranian missiles on the Eritrean coast. Sudan is one of the most important countries on the Red Sea and it has become so in part from this dependence on Iran. In addition, there are Iranian weapon factories in Khartoum, including the Yarmouk factory [that was bombed in October 2012].”

“Many initiatives were presented to solve the issue of the Houthis reaching the area of Bab al-Mandeb and threatening the security of the Red Sea countries. However, none of them were effectively initiated. It is this that threatens the outbreak of military confrontations in the region in the event of the Houthis' anticipated arrival to the strait area.”

In an article entitled "Saudis Fear Iranian Control Of Yemen Due To This Strategic Choke Point" the web site Foxtrot Alpha helps put it all together:

“The issue of Iran strangling Sunni-ruled Arab States' oil exports has existed for decades. At any time, Iran can launch throngs of anti-ship and ballistic missiles into and across the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, along with executing swarming fast boat attacks and deploying hundreds of sea mines. Such an action, which could occur quickly, would in effect shut down the Persian Gulf and choke off 20% of the world's oil supply and about 88 percent of the region's energy exports with a massive impact on the global economy.

“The most vulnerable point in the Persian Gulf when it comes to potential Iranian anti-ship and anti-access operations, is the Strait of Hormuz, a 35 mile wide funnel point that separates the Persian Gulf from the Gulf of Oman. This tight channel, surrounded by complex littorals and shallow waters, gives even the world's most advanced naval vessels transiting through it very little time to respond to an attack and very little room to maneuver evasively. Although Iran is well prepared for the direct attack option, the reality is that they would not have to fire a shot to achieve a similar outcome, instead a blitzkrieg-like mining operation in this area alone could shut down the strategic corridor for weeks or even months.

“A wildly similar geographical situation is in play when it comes to Yemen's location on the Gulf of Aden and the southeast portion of the Red Sea. These two key waterways are bisected by a relatively tiny waterway, just 12 miles wide, with Yemen on one side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the other. This relatively tight channel is known as the Mandeb Strait.

“If Houthi Rebels were to consolidate their power and territorial gains in Western Yemen, and had time to stabilize and establish formal rule there, Iran could step in and begin to build up its proxy with similar weapons and tactics as it uses in the Persian Gulf. The impact of Iran controlling the region's two major logistical choke points, and the region's two primary avenues for which oil exports travel, especially those from Saudi Arabia, has wide ranging consequences for players in the region and beyond.”

For economic and geopolitical reasons, as well as due to the historic clash between the Sunni and the Shiia, this narrow channel takes on special and urgent significance. Both sides seem unwilling or unable to cede control to the other. Both have been using proxy forces to fight regional flashpoints. But both sides have increasingly committed their forces and resources openly in several arenas. Add to this that the two sects have different visions of a new caliphate and, not insignificantly, that the Arabs tend to hate the Persians and vice versa. And the Sunni's (probably accurate) assessment that if they don't stop Iran before it achieves nuclear capability, it may be near impossible to ever stop their empire-building expansionism.

We could be on the cusp of a significant escalation of fighting in the Middle East. Where the world powers stand, including the United States, is not really clear.

We live in interesting times.


(Links upon request. Lost them when copying the draft from Open Office.)